How AI commerce actually works

What moves, and what never does.

One shopper, one purchase, five parties. Follow it across the map and you will see what has to be true before an AI-mediated sale can happen at all, where Herm measures and decides, and the one join nobody has built yet.

5 actors · 4 views · 1 purchase
panel · 5 models
honest states throughout
Geography

States on this map reflect availability in our markets. In-chat checkout is live in one geography, with one AI provider, not ours. Everywhere else, the answer still has to send her somewhere.

How to read the map

Two questions about every line: what does Herm do there, and does it happen yet?

Herm's role

Measures
Herm observes or tests something and produces evidence.
Decides
Herm returns a decision used inside an eligible experience.
Carries
An object genuinely moves through Herm-controlled infrastructure.
Never
Herm deliberately does not receive the object, or take part in that step.

Capability state

Live
Generally available today, in the stated markets.
Early access
Available only under the relevant early-access conditions.
Roadmap
Planned. Not available, and not a description of anything running now.
Not generally available
The mechanism it needs does not exist to build on. Not the same as Roadmap.

Dashed lines mean Roadmap or Not generally available, and nothing else.

Current capability

What Herm can do on this map today.

Measure how AI represents a brand

Brand Visibility runs repeated controlled observations across the five-model panel and records what came back: the brands named, their order, the sources cited and the explanation the answer itself gives.

Test whether product information is usable

Product Readiness runs representative shopping situations through controlled Shopping Tests against the brand's connected product information, and reports where they fail and why.

Return a decision inside a signed-in session

Customer Intelligence ranks the options a brand already has, for a shopper who chose to connect, and returns the ranking. The shopper's profile stays inside Herm. Early access.

Verify that a purchase occurred

Where consent and coverage exist, a covered purchase outcome confirms what was bought, where, when and for how much.

What Herm cannot prove today

Herm cannot prove that one specific AI answer caused one specific cross-surface purchase, because the durable answer-to-transaction identifier required for that join is not generally available.

One question

fragrance-free vitamin C serum gentle enough for rosacea, under £40, ships to Germany

fragrance-free vitamin C serum

Can a model name Velora in this category at all?

answers
gentle enough for rosacea

Does the catalogue expose the form, not just the strength, where a machine can read it?

product
under £40

Is the price current, and is there a reason to buy now?

product · rewards
ships to Germany

Can the answer end somewhere she can actually buy?

buys

Four clauses. Four different things that have to be true. Miss one and the sale dies quietly, and nobody ever learns it happened.

The AI Commerce Map

The purchase comes back verified. Which answer caused it does not.

Commerce journey: One shopper, one purchase: she asks, the AI answers, she arrives at the brand and buys. Herm is in none of it. What Herm measures: Two measurements, both beside the journey: what the answers say, and whether the catalogue works. Where Herm decides: Two decisions, on surfaces built for them. The decision moves. The shopper profile does not. Evidence & limits: The purchase comes back verified. Which answer caused it does not.
Shopper one person, one purchase
AI shopping surfaces ChatGPT · Claude · Gemini · Perplexity · Grok
Brand & merchant Velora, on surfaces it owns
Herm measures here, decides here
Evidence & limits what comes back, and what does not
the decision moves · the profile does not
no durable identifier exists to join on
Herm's role Measures Decides Carries Never
Capability state Live Early access Roadmap Not generally available
Commerce journey: One shopper, one purchase: she asks, the AI answers, she arrives at the brand and buys. Herm is in none of it. What Herm measures: Two measurements, both beside the journey: what the answers say, and whether the catalogue works. Where Herm decides: Two decisions, on surfaces built for them. The decision moves. The shopper profile does not. Evidence & limits: The purchase comes back verified. Which answer caused it does not. Every relationship on the map, with what moves, Herm’s role and its state, is listed in full in the relationship ledger below.

Selected

Select any node on the map to see what moves through it.

The map, as text

Every relationship on the map.

The same map, one relationship at a time: who it runs between, what moves, what Herm does there, and whether it happens yet.

Commerce journey

One shopper, one purchase: she asks, the AI answers, she arrives at the brand and buys. Herm is in none of it.

  1. Asks an AI what to buy to Answers and recommends

    She asks in full sentences

    What moves
    her question
    Herm's role
    Never
    State
    Live

    Category, suitability, price and delivery in one line. Herm is not in this conversation and will not be. Brand Visibility observes questions like this one, put to the panel under controlled conditions; it never sees hers.

  2. Answers and recommends to Checks specs, price, stock, delivery

    The surface narrows to a few names

    What moves
    a shortlist, and the explanation the answer itself gives
    Herm's role
    Never
    State
    Live

    The surface decides which brands are candidates and states why in the answer: which claim it points to, which source it cites. Most brands lose here, silently, with no impression and no line in anyone’s analytics.

  3. Checks specs, price, stock, delivery to Product information the brand publishes

    The surface reads the brand’s own product information

    What moves
    specs, price, stock and delivery eligibility
    Herm's role
    Never
    State
    Live

    The AI surface reads what the brand itself publishes: its pages, or a feed it submitted. Herm is not in this path, does not proxy it and does not route it. Product Readiness tests the same information separately, in the loop beneath.

  4. Checks specs, price, stock, delivery to Signs in to the brand

    The answer sends her somewhere

    What moves
    a recommendation, and a route to the brand
    Herm's role
    Never
    State
    Live

    In our markets the answer routes her to the brand’s own store. An answer that cannot quote a price, confirm stock or reach a destination that ships to her recommends someone else.

  5. Signs in to the brand to Brand-owned signed-in experience

    She arrives, and signs in

    What moves
    a signed-in session on a surface the brand owns
    Herm's role
    Never
    State
    Live

    From here she is on the brand’s own property: its product carousels, its site assistant, its offer slots. This is the only place on the map where Customer Intelligence operates.

  6. Brand-owned signed-in experience to Merchant checkout, orders, payments

    She buys

    What moves
    the order
    Herm's role
    Never
    State
    Live

    The merchant is the merchant in every version of this. However she arrived, the transaction happens on the brand’s own commerce stack.

  7. Merchant checkout, orders, payments , going nowhere, by design

    Orders, payments and refunds stay with the merchant

    What moves
    nothing to Herm
    What does not move
    the order, the payment, the card details, the refund
    Herm's role
    Never
    State
    Live

    No version of this passes through Herm. Herm does not create carts, process payments or perform checkout. The gap is deliberate and permanent.

What Herm measures

Two measurements, both beside the journey: what the answers say, and whether the catalogue works.

  1. Answers and recommends to Brand Visibility

    Brand Visibility observes comparable answers

    What moves
    observed responses: the brands named, their order, the sources cited, the stated explanation
    Herm's role
    Measures
    State
    Live

    Repeated controlled observations across the supported model panel, up to weekly, signed out and personalisation-free. Herm records what came back. It does not read a model’s internal reasoning, it does not see this shopper’s conversation, and a cited source is not proof that the source caused the answer.

  2. Product information the brand publishes to Product Readiness

    Product Readiness takes the connected catalogue

    What moves
    connected product information, and Brand Intent where the brand supplies it
    Herm's role
    Measures
    State
    Live

    The brand connects its product information to Herm for testing. This loop sits beside the journey, not inside it: it tells the brand whether it is ready for AI shopping, and it carries no real AI shopping interaction.

  3. Product Readiness to Product information the brand publishes

    Controlled Shopping Tests return findings

    What moves
    Find, Answer, Trust and Close findings, with root causes and remediation
    Herm's role
    Measures
    State
    Live

    Representative shopping situations run against the connected catalogue in a controlled environment. They are not the live consumer experience of ChatGPT, Claude or any other third-party assistant, and a result describes the brand’s readiness, not what an external system did.

Where Herm decides

Two decisions, on surfaces built for them. The decision moves. The shopper profile does not.

  1. Brand-owned signed-in experience to Customer Intelligence

    The brand asks: which of these?

    What moves
    the eligible options the brand could already show, and that shopper's brand-scoped connection context
    Herm's role
    Decides
    State
    Early access

    Only inside an eligible signed-in session, and only for a shopper who chose to connect. The brand asks “which of these?”, never “who is this?”. There is no profile lookup, no attribute response, no batch mode and no offline channel.

  2. Customer Intelligence to Brand-owned signed-in experience

    Herm returns the order

    What moves
    a ranking or a selection, and where supported a short permitted explanation
    Herm's role
    Decides
    State
    Early access

    Herm decides internally, using context the shopper permitted, and returns the decision the brand asked for. The brand acts on the order it gets back.

  3. Customer Intelligence , going nowhere, by design

    The decision moves. The shopper profile does not.

    What moves
    nothing
    What does not move
    the shopper profile, any attribute drawn from it, purchase history, cross-brand identity, or any audience the brand could export
    Herm's role
    Never
    State
    Live

    This is the design, not a limitation. The profile Herm holds never reaches the brand: not as attributes, not as segments, not as an export, and not as anything written into a CRM. What the brand keeps is the decision it was given.

  4. Brand-owned signed-in experience to Offers

    The brand publishes an offer

    What moves
    the offer, its commercial terms and its eligibility rules
    Herm's role
    Decides
    State
    Live

    The brand states what it will give, and on what terms. Herm decides relevance internally while serving the shopper. This is not audience buying: the brand does not select, reach or receive individual shoppers.

  5. Offers to Claims an offer in Herm

    The offer reaches her on Herm's own surface

    What moves
    the offer, inside the Herm rewards experience the shopper controls
    Herm's role
    Carries
    State
    Live

    The shopper sees offers in Herm's own consumer experience and chooses whether to claim one. Herm genuinely carries this, because the surface is Herm's. The brand never receives the shopper's underlying profile.

  6. Claims an offer in Herm to Merchant checkout, orders, payments

    She claims, then buys from the merchant

    What moves
    a claim, and the purchase that follows it
    Herm's role
    Never
    State
    Live

    The claim happens on Herm. The purchase happens on the merchant’s own stack, like every other purchase on this map, and Herm is not in the money here either.

  7. Offers to Brand-owned signed-in experience

    The brand gets the results, in aggregate

    What moves
    aggregate funnel results, and receipt-verified purchase outcomes where supported
    Herm's role
    Measures
    State
    Live

    Redemption, repeat purchase and verified revenue, in aggregate. A receipt-verified purchase outcome confirms a purchase happened under the applicable consent rules. It does not establish which AI answer, or which offer impression, caused it.

Evidence & limits

The purchase comes back verified. Which answer caused it does not.

  1. Merchant checkout, orders, payments to Covered purchase outcome

    The purchase comes back verified

    What moves
    a covered purchase outcome: a receipt or equivalent, where consent and coverage exist
    Herm's role
    Carries
    State
    Live

    Consented, itemised, revocable, and true across every retailer she uses rather than one store alone. This is the only part of the map that comes back verified, and it is live.

  2. Covered purchase outcome to Offers

    Verified outcomes feed the measurement

    What moves
    verified revenue and redemption, in aggregate
    Herm's role
    Measures
    State
    Live

    Covered outcomes are what make Be Preferred measurable: what share of a category’s buyers also buy the brand, and whether they buy it again. Where receipt panel coverage is too thin, the dimension is reported unavailable, never as zero.

  3. Covered purchase outcome to Answer-level cause

    Herm has the outcome, and looks for the cause

    What moves
    the verified purchase outcome
    Herm's role
    Measures
    State
    Live

    What was bought, where, when and for how much is verified. The next step, establishing which observed answer produced it, is where the map stops.

  4. Answer-level cause to Answers and recommends

    Purchase verified. Cause unknown.

    What moves
    nothing
    What does not move
    a durable identifier linking an observed answer to an independent later purchase
    Herm's role
    Never
    State
    Not generally available
    Causal limit
    A verified purchase does not establish which AI answer caused it. The major AI surfaces do not generally expose a way to carry an answer identifier through to an independent transaction, so there is nothing to join on.

    The line out of this node is dashed and visibly does not arrive. That is missing infrastructure, not a roadmap item, and the two are not the same.

  5. More AI shopping surfaces to Merchant checkout, orders, payments

    Scale on AI

    What moves
    structured product and commercial experiences, reaching more AI surfaces
    Herm's role
    Carries
    State
    Roadmap

    Roadmap. As more AI shopping surfaces open, structured product and commercial experiences could be distributed into them, and the merchant would still be the merchant. Nothing here runs today, and AI Distribution is the destination of the framework, not a fifth readiness rung.

What the receipt proves

Purchase verified. Cause unknown.

Happens today
Covered purchase outcome consented, real
Purchase verified it happened
Cause unknown which answer?
Not generally available
The answer carries an id no surface exposes one
The outcome joins it nothing to join on
Cause established not possible today

One provider, in one geography, can already tell a merchant that an order came through its own chat. That is the channel, not the answer, and it stops at the edge of that provider. It says nothing about the shopper who asked on Tuesday and bought on Velora.com on Friday, which is most of them. Until an identifier survives from the answer to the transaction, a verified purchase is exactly that: verified, with its cause unknown.

Herm thesis · not a current-state fact

Why we think more AI surfaces open.

Consumer buying is not a requirements document. People buy a perfume because they liked it, not because it scored well against criteria. Five general assistants can serve the rational half of that. They are much weaker on taste, on wardrobe, on occasion, and on the hundred niches underneath, and the apps that are good at those things are already appearing. Stylists that hold your wardrobe and tell you what’s missing exist today.

So we think AI shopping spreads across thousands of them, each good at one segment. We can't prove it. It's why AI Distribution is drawn on this map as Roadmap rather than as a fact, and we'd rather say so.

The plumbing

Five standards. One of them is ours to publish, not ours to declare.

Standard Owner State
Product feed schema Industry ● Live
Agentic checkout Industry: more than one, not converging ◑ Live, scoped
Consent handshake Herm ● Implemented, Herm-side
Receipt & answer-join spec Herm ● Implemented, Herm-side
Cross-agent brand identity Herm ○ Proposed

“Herm-side” means we have built and implemented our half. It runs the moment a counterparty implements the other half. Technical details are available to connected brands and partners inside Herm rather than as public standalone specifications. There is more than one agentic checkout protocol and they are not converging yet, which is the whole argument for a layer that sits above all of them.

Where you are on this map

See where your brand stands on the map.

Four dimensions, measured separately: whether AI represents you, whether your product information works, whether your signed-in experience can choose better, and whether your category's buyers choose you. Where a dimension can't be measured yet, you'll see that, not a zero.